Climate Records Topple, Placing Earth in Unexplored Territory - Scientists

 

A cascade of climate milestones in temperature, ocean heat, and Antarctic sea ice has triggered concern among certain scientists, who describe the pace and timing of these changes as unparalleled.

According to the United Nations, Europe is facing the risk of more extreme heatwaves that could shatter existing records.

Connecting these events directly to climate change proves challenging due to the intricate nature of weather patterns and ocean dynamics.

While ongoing studies aim to establish clearer links, scientists are already apprehensive that some worst-case scenarios are materializing.

"I'm not aware of a similar period when all parts of the climate system were in record-breaking or abnormal territory," says Thomas Smith, an environmental geographer at the London School of Economics.

Dr. Paulo Ceppi, a climate science lecturer at Imperial College London, states, "The Earth is in uncharted territory" due to global warming resulting from the combustion of fossil fuels and the influence of the first El Niño, a warming natural weather system, since 2018.

During this summer, four climate records have already been shattered, marking historic milestones: the hottest day on record, the hottest June on a global scale, extreme marine heatwaves, and record-low Antarctic sea ice. These unprecedented occurrences provide significant insights into the current state of our planet's climate.

In July, the world witnessed its highest-ever recorded temperature, surpassing the previous global average temperature record established in 2016. On the 6th of July, the average global temperature exceeded 17°C for the very first time, reaching a remarkable 17.08°C, as reported by the EU climate monitoring service, Copernicus. This persistent warming trend of our planet can be attributed to the continuous emissions stemming from the combustion of fossil fuels such as oil, coal, and gas. These human-induced activities play a significant role in driving the Earth's temperature upward.

According to climate scientist Dr. Friederike Otto from Imperial College London, this outcome is precisely what was predicted to occur in a world with higher levels of greenhouse gases.

She emphasizes that humans are entirely responsible for the upward trend in global temperatures.

Dr. Smith expresses surprise at the timing of the record-breaking events occurring in June, which is earlier in the year than expected. Typically, El Niño's global impact is not felt until five or six months into its phase.

El Niño stands as the most powerful naturally occurring climate variation worldwide. It involves the upwelling of warmer water in the tropical Pacific, leading to the release of warmer air into the atmosphere. This phenomenon typically contributes to an increase in global air temperatures.

In June of this year, the average global temperature was 1.47°C higher than the typical June temperatures observed in the pre-industrial era. It was during the Industrial Revolution, which commenced around 1800, that humans began emitting greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

When asked if the summer of 2023 aligns with what he would have forecasted a decade ago, Dr. Smith explains that climate models excel at predicting long-term trends but face challenges in accurately forecasting the next 10 years. He points out that models from the 1990s have largely projected the current state of affairs. However, predicting the exact conditions for the next 10 years is a formidable task.

Dr. Smith underscores that there is no expectation of temperatures cooling down; the trend is likely to continue towards further warming.

Extreme marine heatwaves

The average global ocean temperature has shattered records for the months of May, June, and July. It is now edging closer to reaching the highest sea surface temperature ever recorded, which was previously observed in 2016.

However, it is the extreme heat in the North Atlantic Ocean that is causing particular concern among scientists.

Daniela Schmidt, a Professor of Earth Sciences at the University of Bristol, expresses her astonishment, stating, "We have never before experienced a marine heatwave in this part of the Atlantic. I had not anticipated this."

Marine heatwave in the North Atlantic

"Daily Sea Surface Temperature from April to July 2023 Compared to the 1985-1993 Average"

In June, temperatures off the west coast of Ireland surged to levels that were 4 to 5 degrees Celsius above the average, leading the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to classify it as a category 5 heatwave, or "beyond extreme."

Directly attributing this specific heatwave to climate change is a complex task, but ongoing research and investigations are being conducted, according to Professor Schmidt.

However, what remains evident is that the world has experienced a warming trend, and a significant portion of the excess heat from the atmosphere has been absorbed by the oceans, as Professor Schmidt explains.

She further adds that their climate models account for natural variability, yet unexpected phenomena are still emerging, indicating that there are factors at play that were not fully foreseen, at least not yet.