Mexico's President Launches Offensive - A Political 'Goldmine' for His Rival

 

An unprecedented campaign led by the Mexican president to undermine a prominent opposition candidate for the country's 2024 presidential election has garnered an official rebuke from the federal election authority and sparked criticism for potentially harming the democratic process.

Surprisingly, this aggressive campaign appears to be having an unintended consequence: bolstering the coalition's efforts to unseat the president's party.

Recent polling data from a Mexican newspaper indicates that Xóchitl Gálvez, a freshman senator competing for the Frente Amplio por México's nomination, an alliance of three parties, is now closely trailing the front-runners from the president's leftist party. This development is significant as the race was previously seen as favoring the president's party.

Gálvez's remarkable rise comes as President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has launched a barrage of near-daily attacks against her. During his regular news conferences this month, he has used derogatory terms to describe her, questioned her upbringing in poverty, and even disclosed her private financial information.

However, Gálvez has skillfully transformed this attention into momentum, leading some commentators to jest that the president has inadvertently become her campaign manager.

"In just a few weeks, AMLO's obsession with Senator Gálvez has made her the most talked-about opposition candidate and considered by many to be the favorite," wrote Enrique Quintana, the general editorial director for the business newspaper El Financiero, in a recent column, using a nickname for the president.

"This situation is a golden opportunity for her," stated political analyst Carlos Bravo Regidor to Americas Quarterly.

The immensely popular López Obrador, barred from seeking re-election under Mexican law after completing his six-year term, has seen crowded primaries commence this summer to determine his successor. Both the opposition coalition and Morena, the president's party, are set to select their candidates in September, with the general election scheduled for next June.

Despite controversial pandemic policies that led Mexico to rank among countries with the highest Covid-19 death rates and ongoing issues with cartel violence, López Obrador has consistently enjoyed some of the highest favorability ratings among world leaders. The eventual Morena flagbearer, among the candidates being considered, includes the recent mayor of Mexico City, referred to as his "political daughter," and his former foreign secretary, both of whom are viewed as potential successors.

With an engaging personal narrative and a flair for attention-grabbing antics - like once dressing as a T. rex on the senate floor to protest a controversial electoral reform, denouncing the proposal as coming from political "dinosaurs" - Gálvez immediately brought energy and a media frenzy to an opposition contest that had struggled to connect with the public.

Through press interviews and viral social media posts, the senator, representing the conservative PAN party while advocating progressive policies, has boldly fought back, portraying the president as reckless and machista.

Her standing in the polls has soared. In a recent survey by El Financiero, Gálvez's support within the coalition primary surged by nine percent from two weeks ago, placing her six points ahead of her closest rival, the president of the lower house of Congress. In hypothetical matchups against the three leading Morena candidates, she trails by five to twelve points.

In response to López Obrador's commentary, the National Electoral Institute, an independent agency, has scrutinized his remarks. A complaints commission within the institute declared last week that López Obrador's statements "may violate the principles of impartiality, neutrality, and equity" and ordered him to refrain from making "comments, opinions, or statements on electoral issues."

Following the ruling against him, López Obrador has exhibited varying responses, including open disregard, insinuations, and begrudging compliance. He contended that he was not obligated to follow the order since his office had not been formally notified, but later shared a document online purportedly containing information about government contracts awarded to Gálvez's technological services company. López Obrador has sought to link the candidate to the country's historical ruling elite through these claims, which she has denied.

Such brazen actions against a political opponent are unprecedented in recent Mexican elections, according to legal experts, but they align with the tactics of a president who revels in defying norms and targeting perceived adversaries.

In a widely criticized incident last year, López Obrador publicly revealed the salary of a prominent journalist, allegedly sourced from privileged government filings, after the reporter published an investigation into one of the president's sons.

Furthermore, López Obrador has advocated for a legislative package aimed at reducing the election agency's autonomy and its capacity to penalize politicians for electoral violations, although significant portions of the proposal have been struck down by the Supreme Court.

With his disregard for the electoral ruling, López Obrador is jeopardizing Mexico's democratic foundations, warns Ildefonso Guajardo Villarreal, the opposition coalition's director for international liaisons. He calls for the attention of international public opinion and pro-democracy organizations to recognize the challenges Mexico faces in this election.