China's Unanticipated Military Reorganization: Elite Nuclear Leadership Replaced

 

China Surprises with Leadership Shake-Up in its Rocket Force, Including Elite Nuclear Figures

China has made a surprising move this week by announcing the appointment of two new leaders for its People's Liberation Army Rocket Force, raising questions about the inner workings at the top of the military branch responsible for the country's formidable arsenal of nuclear and ballistic missiles.

During a ceremony presided over by Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Monday, Wang Houbin, previously in a military position outside the Rocket Force, was promoted to the rank of general and named as the new commander of the Rocket Force. Similarly, Xu Xisheng, also from a non-Rocket Force military background, was promoted to the rank of general and appointed as the force's political commissar. This marks the first time that either of these two leaders has been associated with the Rocket Force's leadership. Notably, there has been no information released about the previous chief, Li Yuchao, who had served as the commander for a relatively short tenure since the beginning of last year.

The replacement of two key figures in the Rocket Force, both hailing from outside the branch, is an unusual move, prompting speculation among experts. Moreover, this development comes shortly after China's former foreign minister, Qin Gang, was abruptly removed from his position without any official explanation.

The reshuffling of the Rocket Force's leadership follows weeks of rumors hinting at an impending leadership change, as Li had been absent from the public eye. The lack of confirmation about his current status within China's opaque political system further fuels uncertainty.

The last time Li and former commissar Xu Zhongbo were mentioned as Rocket Force leaders was during an April 6 statement from the local government in Suzhou city, where they participated in a wreath-laying commemoration ceremony, as per a CNN search. As this unexpected shake-up continues to unfold, the world awaits further details and explanations from Chinese authorities regarding the motivations behind these significant leadership changes.

While the specific reasons behind these changes remain unclear, experts speculate that the reshuffle may indicate potential concerns about the leadership of the force from Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

The timing of this shake-up is notable, as the branch plays a crucial role in handling China's missile programs, including nuclear-tipped weapons and shorter-range missiles. China's recent actions, such as intimidating self-governing Taiwan, have raised international tensions. The ruling Communist Party of China claims Taiwan as its own and has not ruled out the possibility of using force to bring it under its control.

Yun Sun, the director of the China program at the Washington-based Stimson Center think tank, considers this shake-up to be significant, especially if it is part of a broader inquiry into the force. She points out that as China is actively strengthening its nuclear arsenal to deter potential US intervention in a Taiwan contingency, the personnel reshuffling and its underlying causes may raise doubts about the force's ability to execute that mission reliably and effectively.

In recent times, China has been undergoing significant changes, including an extensive anti-corruption campaign that has targeted both current and former top military leaders, including members of the Communist Party's Central Military Commission. While fewer high-profile moves have been announced in recent years, the crackdown has remained an ongoing effort.

On the 96th anniversary of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), the official military newspaper published a commentary urging military personnel to demonstrate loyalty, support, and safeguard Chinese leader Xi Jinping, who is considered the "core" of the Communist Party. The commentary emphasized the need for enhanced military governance, conduct rectification, discipline enforcement, and the fight against corruption.

The recent changes in military leadership coincide with a shake-up in China's diplomatic leadership. For instance, former foreign minister Qin Gang was unexpectedly removed from his position without any explanation after a prolonged absence from the public eye. He was replaced by his predecessor, Wang Yi, leaving the reasons for this change undisclosed and adding to the lack of transparency in China's political system.

According to Carl Schuster, an analyst based in Hawaii and a former director of operations at the US Pacific Command's Joint Intelligence Center, the shake-up at the top of the Rocket Force is likely part of Xi Jinping's efforts to ensure absolute loyalty from those occupying the most influential positions within the PLA. Schuster suggests that loyalty to Xi might be prioritized over technical expertise and operational experience in these leadership changes.

As these developments unfold, the motivations behind the changes and their potential impact on China's military and diplomatic strategies continue to be subjects of scrutiny and speculation. The lack of transparency in China's political system adds to the complexity of understanding the underlying dynamics of these leadership shifts.

The newly appointed leadership of the Rocket Force has intriguing backgrounds, as both Wang and Xu previously held deputy positions in other branches of the military.

Wang's prior role was as the deputy commander of the PLA Navy, while Xu served as the deputy political commissar of the Southern Theater Command, one of the five theater commands of the PLA. The political commissar's responsibility is to represent the Communist Party and ensure its control within the PLA.

According to Neil Thomas, a fellow specializing in Chinese politics at the Asia Society Policy Institute's Center for China Analysis, these appointments deviate from typical personnel changes. It is uncommon for Beijing to assign outsiders to lead the Rocket Force and simultaneously replace both the commander and political commissar of any military branch. Additionally, the disappearance of the previous leaders from public view over the past several months adds to the unusual nature of the situation.

Roderick Lee, the director of research at the USAF Air University China Aerospace Studies Institute in the US, highlights the most remarkable aspect of the announcement as the selection of a former PLA Navy officer to become the Rocket Force Commander. While extremely odd, such a move is not entirely unheard of.

CNN has reached out to China's Ministry of Defense for comment regarding the leadership changes, but as of now, further details and official statements remain awaited.

The recent leadership change coincides with growing evidence of an expanding Chinese nuclear force, underscoring the increasing significance of the Rocket Force, previously known as the PLA Second Artillery Force until 2016.

Over the past few years, satellite imagery has revealed the construction of numerous silos, believed to be designed for intercontinental ballistic missiles, across Chinese desert areas. In addition, the US Defense Department has projected a substantial rise in the number of nuclear warheads in Beijing's arsenal over the next decade. This development highlights the crucial role the Rocket Force plays in managing and overseeing China's nuclear capabilities.

According to a 2022 US Defense Department report on China's military development, China's nuclear warhead count could reach approximately 1,500 by the year 2035 if the current pace of stockpile expansion continues. This escalating situation has raised concerns among analysts, particularly regarding the lack of transparency surrounding the recent leadership changes within the Rocket Force. Given the importance of international communication concerning nuclear weaponry and the absence of high-level military communication between China and the United States, the lack of clarity in these personnel transitions is seen as problematic.

Drew Thompson, a senior research fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, points out that the leaders of the Rocket Force have significant responsibilities as they are responsible for handling and deploying China's nuclear weapons. The absence of transparency and communication in this personnel turnover erodes trust, increases the risk of misinterpretation, and underscores the urgent need for authoritative dialogues between the US and China regarding strategic nuclear dynamics.

In this context, it becomes crucial for both countries to engage in open and clear communication to foster understanding and mitigate potential misperceptions concerning nuclear capabilities and intentions.