The West African Ecowas bloc has authorized the deployment of a standby force to reinstate constitutional order in Niger. This comes amidst threats from coup leaders to execute the ousted president if neighboring nations intervene.
During a meeting in Nigeria, leaders from West Africa have issued instructions for the deployment of a 'standby force' to reinstate democracy in Niger following the coup.
Standby Force
However, two Western officials have informed The Associated Press that junta leaders in Niger conveyed to an American diplomat their intention to assassinate the ousted President Mohamed Bazoum if any military intervention is attempted.
Members of the junta disclosed the threat to Bazoum while US Under Secretary of State Victoria Nuland was visiting the country this week. A Western military official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the situation, provided this information.
Bazoum, who was removed from power on July 26, has stated that he is being held captive at his residence. The United Nations has expressed concerns over the limited availability of food and water for him and his family.
Ecowas did not provide specific information regarding the composition, location, or potential deployment date of a military intervention force following its Thursday meeting in the Nigerian capital, Abuja.
Further Explanation
When asked for clarification, the president of the Ecowas commission, Omar Alieu Touray, could only reiterate the decisions made by "the military authorities in the subregion to deploy a standby force of the community."
Financial matters were deliberated upon and "necessary steps have been undertaken," he mentioned.
He held the junta responsible for any difficulties arising from the sanctions imposed on Niger and emphasized that subsequent actions by the coalition would be a collective effort, rather than the responsibility of any individual nation.
"It's not a matter of one country versus another. The community possesses mechanisms that all members have agreed upon," he remarked.
Following the junta's failure to meet the Sunday deadline set by Ecowas for the reinstatement of Bazoum, analysts suggest that the coalition might be running short of alternatives as backing for intervention dwindles.
Closed-door Meeting
Out of the anticipated 11 heads of state, nine were in attendance at the meeting, including the presidents of Senegal, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Togo, Benin, Guinea-Bissau, and Sierra Leone. Additionally, the leaders of Mauritania and Burundi, who are not part of ECOWAS, also took part in the confidential discussion.
"It is imperative that we prioritize diplomatic negotiations and dialogue as the cornerstone of our approach," stated Nigerian President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the current chair of the bloc, before the closed session of the meeting.
Niger was considered the final country in the Sahel region, located south of the Sahara Desert, that Western nations could collaborate with to counteract jihadi violence associated with al-Qaida and the Islamic State group. This violence has resulted in thousands of deaths and the displacement of millions. The global community is urgently seeking a peaceful resolution to the leadership crisis in the country.
"Let me tell you, any coup that has succeeded for more than 24 hours has proven its stability. Therefore, at this point, they are negotiating from a position of strength and advantage," explained Oladeinde Ariyo, a security analyst in Nigeria. "Consequently, any negotiations with them will need to be based on their terms."
General Abdourahmane Tchiani
On Wednesday, a delegation from Nigeria, headed by the former Emir of Kano, Khalifa Muhammad Sanusi, held a meeting with the junta's leader, General Abdourahmane Tchiani. The former emir was among the few individuals granted permission to meet with Tchiani.
During Nuland's meeting with the coup leaders earlier in the week, she was denied access to both Tchiani and Bazoum. Furthermore, a separate delegation composed of representatives from Ecowas, the United Nations, and the African Union was prevented from entering the country altogether.
Ecowas has been unsuccessful in preventing previous coups across the region. Niger marks the fourth country within the 15-member state bloc to undergo a coup in the last three years.
The coalition has enforced stringent economic and travel sanctions.
However, as the junta strengthens its position, the room for negotiation is becoming increasingly limited, as stated by Andrew Lebovich, a research fellow at the Clingendael Institute.
"It's extremely challenging to predict the outcome, but the fact that the initial deadline elapsed without intervention, and the junta has maintained a relatively steadfast stance, suggests they believe they can endure this pressure," he remarked.
The primary parties' stances are alarmingly distant, according to the International Crisis Group, a think tank, which noted that for dialogue to succeed, both sides need to make concessions—something they have been unwilling to do thus far.
Relations with France
Since seizing control, the junta has severed ties with France and capitalized on public grievances towards its former colonial ruler to bolster its support base. Additionally, it has sought assistance from the Russian mercenary group Wagner, known to operate in a few African countries and accused of human rights violations.
Moscow is leveraging Wagner and other avenues of influence to undermine the credibility of Western nations, as asserted by Lou Osborn, an investigator with All Eyes on Wagner, a project dedicated to studying the group.
Tactics involve using social media to circulate rumors about Wagner's imminent arrival in Niger and deploying fake accounts to organize protests and disseminate false narratives, Osborn stated. "Their goal is not to endorse the junta or any alternative political approach, but to sow discord, foster chaos, and destabilize," she explained.
Wagner Mercenaries
She highlighted a Telegram post made on Wednesday by a purported Wagner operative, Alexander Ivanov, which claimed that France had initiated the "large-scale removal of children" likely for purposes of forced labor and sexual exploitation.
Neither the Russian government nor Wagner provided responses to inquiries.
Although there is no evidence to suggest Russia's involvement in the coup, experts on the Sahel region believe that Russia will exploit the situation to establish a stronger presence in the area, a scenario Western nations were attempting to prevent.
France and the United States maintain a combined total of over 2,500 military personnel in Niger, and along with other European countries, they have invested hundreds of millions of dollars in military assistance to bolster the country's armed forces. Much of this aid has now been halted.
Meanwhile, Niger's population of around 25 million is feeling the repercussions of the sanctions.
Certain neighborhoods in the capital, Niamey, are experiencing limited access to electricity, with frequent power outages affecting the entire city. The country relies on Nigeria for up to 90% of its electricity, but some of this supply has been cut off.
Following the coup, Hamidou Albade, aged 48, shared that he's been unable to operate his shop on the outskirts of Niamey due to the lack of electricity. His taxi driver business has also suffered, as many of his foreign clients have departed the city.
"It's extremely challenging; I'm just sitting at home with nothing to do," he remarked. Nonetheless, he supports the junta, saying, "We're enduring difficulties now, but I believe the junta will find a solution to navigate through this crisis."
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