Russia and China seek to promote their goals during the BRICS summit held in South Africa, a gathering of developing nations.

 

During this week's summit in South Africa, Russia and China will aim to expand their political and economic influence within the developing world.

Russia and China are poised to strengthen their political and economic foothold within the developing world as they convene at a summit in South Africa this week. This anticipated gathering is expected to feature a joint expression of dissatisfaction with the Western world, potentially carrying a more pointed tone as the two nations formalize efforts to bring Saudi Arabia into their fold.

Leaders from the BRICS economic alliance – comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa – will engage in a three-day series of meetings in Johannesburg's financial hub of Sandton. The presence of Chinese Premier Xi Jinping underscores the considerable diplomatic investment China has made in the bloc as a conduit for its ambitions, spanning over the past decade.

Russian President Vladimir Putin will participate via video link, owing to complications arising from an International Criminal Court arrest warrant against him concerning the Ukrainian conflict. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa are set to join Xi Jinping at the summit.

The focal point of the summit, scheduled for Wednesday, along with ancillary discussions on Tuesday and Thursday, is expected to yield broad calls for enhanced collaboration among nations within the Global South. These calls stem from a growing discontent with perceived Western dominance over global institutions.

This is a sentiment that Russia and China are keen to embrace. Leaders and delegates from numerous other developing nations are poised to convene at the sideline meetings in Africa's most affluent city, providing a substantial audience for Xi Jinping and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who will stand in for Putin in South Africa.

Among the specific policy matters of more immediate consequence is the deliberation and potential resolution of the proposed expansion of the BRICS alliance. Initially established in 2009 by the emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India, and China, with the later addition of South Africa, this bloc's enlargement is up for discussion.

According to South African officials, Saudi Arabia is one of over 20 countries that have officially expressed interest in joining BRICS in a potential expansion. The prospect of integrating the world's second-largest oil producer into an economic union alongside Russia and China would undoubtedly attract attention in a notably tense geopolitical climate. This move also coincides with China's recent efforts to enhance its influence in the Persian Gulf.

Talmiz Ahmad, India's former ambassador to Saudi Arabia, remarked, "If Saudi Arabia were to become a part of BRICS, it would significantly elevate the importance of this coalition."

Even an agreement on the fundamental concept of expanding BRICS, which already encompasses a substantial portion of the largest economies in the developing world, can be viewed as a triumph for the Russian and Chinese vision of the bloc. This vision sees BRICS as a counterbalance to the G-7, a symbolic yet influential coalition. Analysts highlight that both Russia and China advocate for expanding the bloc by including more countries, aiming to create a coalition that serves as a symbolic counterweight. This intention aligns with China's economic tensions with the U.S. and Russia's confrontational stance with the Western world due to the conflict in Ukraine, reminiscent of the Cold War era.

Countries ranging from Argentina to Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Indonesia, and the United Arab Emirates have all officially submitted applications to join, alongside Saudi Arabia, potentially becoming new members.

"If several of them are brought into the fold, then you establish a larger economic coalition, which in turn fosters a sense of influence," explained Professor Alexis Habiyaremye from the College of Business and Economics at the University of Johannesburg.

While Brazil, India, and South Africa are less enthusiastic about expansion due to concerns about diluting their influence in the existing exclusive club of developing nations, the momentum for expansion is palpable. However, no decisions have been made yet, and the five current member countries must first agree on the criteria that new applicants must meet. This deliberation is on the agenda during the summit in Johannesburg, coinciding with Beijing's advocacy for expansion.

"BRICS expansion has become the most prominent topic of discussion at the moment," stated Chen Xiaodong, China's ambassador to South Africa. He added, "Expansion is essential for invigorating the vitality of the BRICS mechanism. I believe that this year's summit will mark a significant and concrete step in this direction."

In an attempt to counterbalance any growing Russian and Chinese influence originating from BRICS, the United States has emphasized its bilateral relationships with South Africa, Brazil, and India. Leading up to the summit, the State Department expressed its active engagement with several prominent members of the BRICS association.

The events in Johannesburg will also be closely monitored by the European Union, albeit with a primary focus on the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the EU's persistent efforts to garner united condemnation against Russia's invasion from the developing nations, a goal that has faced substantial challenges thus far.

As leaders like Xi Jinping, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Narendra Modi, and Cyril Ramaphosa converge, European Commission spokesman Peter Stano emphasized that the EU is urging them to seize the moment to uphold international law.

"We anticipate their involvement in pressuring Putin to cease his illegal and destabilizing actions," Stano remarked.

Drawing from the tone of the BRICS foreign ministers meeting that took place in Cape Town in June, which served as a precursor to the main summit, it's likely that there will be minimal public criticism of Russia or Putin regarding the ongoing war. The expected protest by Amnesty International and the Ukrainian Association of South Africa outside the Sandton Convention Centre will likely constitute the sole expressions of condemnation.

If anything, Russia might view the summit as an opportunity to gain favor. Following last month's suspension of a deal enabling the export of grain from Ukraine, Putin could potentially utilize the BRICS gathering as a platform to announce additional shipments of free Russian grain to developing nations, replicating what he has already done for various African countries. Maria Snegovaya, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, speculates that this move would enable Putin to display "goodwill" towards the developing world while sidelining Ukraine from the equation.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov affirmed that Putin's participation in the summit would be substantial, despite his virtual presence, and that he would deliver a speech.

Likely to be a recurring topic throughout the three days in Johannesburg is the grievances of the developing world concerning the existing global financial systems. In the lead-up to the summit, these concerns have coalesced into criticism of the dominant role of the U.S. dollar as the world's primary currency for international trade.

BRICS experts widely acknowledge the challenges the alliance faces in implementing policies due to the distinct economic and political priorities of its five member countries, along with the underlying tensions and competition between China and India.

However, the concept of increasing trade conducted in local currencies garners support from all member countries. Cobus van Staden, an analyst at the China Global South Project, which monitors Chinese involvement in developing nations, asserts that BRICS is advocating for a reduction in the reliance on the dollar for regional trade in certain parts of the world, reflecting the overarching theme of this summit.

Van Staden explained, "None of this will single-handedly overthrow the dominance of the dollar. It's not a singular decisive action but rather a series of incremental steps. It might not bring down the dollar, but it is certainly introducing more complexity to the global landscape."

Their objective isn't necessarily to overthrow the dominance of the dollar or surpass the G-7. Their primary intention is to present an alternative. This strategy involves a more extended-term approach.

Contributions to this report were provided by AP Diplomatic Writer Matthew Lee in Washington, along with AP writers Ashok Sharma in New Delhi, Lorne Cook in Brussels, Jim Heintz in Tallinn, Estonia, and Jon Gambrell in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.