Thaksin's comeback finalizes a significant political agreement in Thailand.

 

Upon the dramatic return of the exiled former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra to Thailand, a pressing inquiry arose: how extensive would his incarceration period turn out to be?

Now we have the answer: slightly over 12 hours.

Not surprisingly, Thailand's Department of Corrections announced this morning that, in light of a heart condition, Mr. Thaksin was promptly transferred to a civilian hospital at midnight for monitoring.

Anticipated to remain there within his dedicated private wing or floor, he is preparing to present a petition to King Vajiralongkorn for clemency, seeking to nullify the eight-year prison sentence that had been imposed on him in absentia due to three charges. The confirmation of this action came from the Supreme Court in Bangkok shortly after his arrival.

The conclusion of Mr. Thaksin's 15-year-long exile is far from an isolated occurrence. It is a pivotal component of a broader political agreement, akin to the interlocking pieces of a puzzle, aimed at concluding the long-standing power struggle between the telecommunications magnate and his populist Pheu Thai party, and the Thai conservative factions aligned with the military and monarchy.

Both sides are now confronted by a novel challenge in the form of the progressive and youthful Move Forward party, which has managed to unify them.

Coincidentally, Mr. Thaksin's return coincided with the day when Pheu Thai's candidate secured the position of the country's forthcoming Prime Minister. The property developer, Srettha Thavisin, obtained substantial approval, facilitated by a coalition comprising parties that had once been Mr. Thaksin's most vehement adversaries.

The fact that Mr. Thaksin's arrival preceded the vote by several hours implies his confidence in the outcome. He seemed to be well aware that the arrangement between once implacable foes was robust, assuring him of his party's safeguard once the day concluded.

Consequently, Thailand has ultimately formed a government, albeit more than three months following the election. Yet, the Thai populace might understandably feel that this outcome doesn't align with their voting intentions. Notably, the government doesn't incorporate the party that garnered the highest number of seats – Move Forward – as the military-appointed senate obstructed its efforts to establish a government.

Instead, the government comprises a majority of parties from the preceding military-backed administration – including those led by two of the coup instigators accountable for toppling the previous Pheu Thai government in 2014, as well as orchestrating a military operation against pro-Thaksin demonstrators in 2010, resulting in numerous casualties.

For the "red shirt" supporters at the grassroots level of Pheu Thai, this development will likely be a difficult pill to swallow, with many expressing their intention to withdraw support from the party.

The new government is expected to assign strategically vital ministries such as defense and interior to the conservative parties as a facet of the extensive agreement. The prospect of Pheu Thai following through on past pledges of reform, including amending the constitution drafted by the military, may wane as it faces resistance from its coalition collaborators.

Considering the considerable optimism surrounding a new beginning for Thailand after Move Forward's remarkable electoral triumph in May – which astonished not only external observers but also its own youthful candidates – this outcome is undeniably disheartening for many Thai voters.

"So, people voted for the top party just for it to remain in opposition? Then why even hold an election?" voiced an exasperated individual on Twitter.

"It's akin to winning the World Cup through penalties," remarked another. "There's no reason to take pride in this."

"I've never regretted voting for Move Forward," stated yet another individual. "At least it revealed the true colors of some. The next election will see a landslide victory for Move Forward!"

There has been a surge of indignation, labeling Pheu Thai's actions as a betrayal and a sellout, akin to a stab in the back. Initially, Pheu Thai had committed to forming a coalition led by Move Forward.

However, it's essential to recognize that Mr. Thaksin's winning formula in elections was never inherently radical or progressive in the way Move Forward aims to be. Rather, it functioned as a populist party employing skillful policy marketing, which initially raised the living standards of previously marginalized segments of the Thai populace. This strategy granted it a commanding advantage over its competitors for two decades.

Yet, it was always driven by pragmatism rather than ideology. Its primary allegiance consistently lay with the interests of the Shinawatra family, who have consistently been the principal financial backers and decision-makers.

This year's election marked a turning point, as it was the first time since the 1990s that a Shinawatra-affiliated party failed to secure the largest portion of parliamentary seats. It served as a wake-up call.

Other parties have emulated Pheu Thai's distinctive populist policies, and Move Forward, with its sweeping agenda for transformation, garnered a substantial number of voters, largely at the expense of Pheu Thai. Recognizing a mutual threat from the same direction, Mr. Thaksin and the conservatives chose to reconcile their differences and confront it collectively.

In the early stages, the new government is likely to concentrate on revitalizing the Thai economy, aiming to alleviate any negative sentiment arising from the contentious manner in which this coalition was formed.

Maintaining coherence within this disparate coalition of parties will be a formidable task, especially for the newly appointed Prime Minister, Mr. Srettha. He possesses limited political experience, is not universally favored even within his own party, and will remain subject to the preferences of the Shinawatra family, much like Mr. Thaksin's own need to evade incarceration.

Anticipating the implementation of policies with enough impact to win back Thailand's disenchanted voters might be overly optimistic.

Moreover, Mr. Srettha will encounter an opposition in Move Forward that is motivated to demonstrate to the Thai populace the unfavorable outcome resulting from their election choice.

In the previous parliamentary term, Move Forward had already demonstrated its adeptness at exposing the hypocrisy and empty pledges that characterize Thai politics—a trait they are poised to exhibit once again.

Earlier this month, the deputy speaker, an MP from Move Forward, employed the entertainment budget allocated to his role to host a barbecue meal for 370 cleaning personnel at the parliament—a gesture that, according to them, marked the first time their contributions had been recognized in such a manner.

This compassionate yet astute move has sparked a public discourse regarding how Thai MPs utilize their expenses, thereby highlighting the principled and economical stance of Move Forward's MPs to their advantage.

Historically, such a move might have been expected from Pheu Thai, with its reputation as an advocate for the marginalized.

However, the fact that Move Forward initiated this action possibly underscores the shifting political dynamics in Thailand.