Wagner chief Prigozhin’s lingering popularity a challenge for Putin

 

In the past few days, Russians have established impromptu memorials in nearly twenty cities across Russia and occupied Ukraine to mourn the presumed passing of Wagner Group leader Yevgeniy Prigozhin. This trend reflects the enduring popularity of the commander and could pose a potential challenge for President Vladimir Putin. The situation comes at a time of internal divisions within the elite and the military regarding the war's execution.

Prigozhin and other high-ranking leaders of Wagner Group are believed to have perished following the crash of his Embraer business jet on Wednesday evening, northwest of Moscow. This incident occurred merely two months after Putin labeled him a traitor for leading a short-lived rebellion against Russia's military in June.

Although the memorials were not a nationwide expression of shock and mourning, they nevertheless revealed Prigozhin's backing within Russia's pro-war factions. They also underscored the Kremlin's delicate task of managing potential discontent among his supporters. Many within Russia's elite are convinced that Prigozhin's presumed death was orchestrated by the Kremlin as an assassination.

Putin's spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, vehemently refuted any speculations of Kremlin involvement, labeling them as "complete falsehoods." Russian analyst and independent journalist Dmitry Kolezev, who departed Russia following the invasion of Ukraine, indicated that the Kremlin is grappling with the task of handling the resentment of Prigozhin and Wagner supporters, which includes junior and mid-level military officers.

"Despite professing loyalty to Putin, Prigozhin endangered his regime and revealed his vulnerabilities, leading to the inevitable consequences," Kolezev stated. "I believe the elites comprehended this message quite clearly."

"Simultaneously, there exists a wider group of military enthusiasts, backers of the Wagner Private Military Company, and Wagner veterans, within whom a sort of cult of Prigozhin has formed," Kolezyov explained. "Putin must ensure that these individuals do not turn into his adversaries and preempt any potential radical actions, achieving this by acknowledging Prigozhin's significance and presenting an alternate narrative of his demise."

Hence, on Thursday, Putin lauded Prigozhin as a "skilled individual" who "attained the required outcomes" but also "committed errors," alluding to the mutiny incident, as he remarked.

Despite a purposeful Kremlin-driven propaganda initiative to portray Prigozhin as an avaricious criminal and betrayer of Russia following the mutiny, the memorials commemorating the Wagner leader continued to surface. This propaganda campaign managed to diminish Prigozhin's soaring approval rating, which had reached 58 percent the week preceding the rebellion, as reported by the independent polling organization Levada Center. 

Individuals placed flowers, pictures bearing the inscription "Hero of Russia," Wagner flags and insignia, candles, religious images, and even a violin—a representation of the mercenary unit known as "The Orchestra," with its members dubbed "musicians." Many attendees donned Wagner camouflage attire while obscuring their faces, and others wore black shirts adorned with Wagner's distinctive skull logo.

Prigozhin earned the loyalty of his troops due to their perception of him as someone who championed their cause against unyielding military bureaucrats. This was despite the notably high casualty rates within Wagner, particularly among former convict fighters, and the widespread allegations that those who fled battles were often executed.

A Wagner combatant named Pavel Shabrin from St. Petersburg composed a poem about Prigozhin containing the lines, "He stood with us on the frontlines: in trenches, in dugouts. He understood our struggles and shared in our joys. He slept in tents, dined on knife-cut porridge, and placed candles for the fallen before icons."

In his writings, Shabrin described Prigozhin as someone who didn't put on smiles and flattery for appearances; instead, "with every word, he sliced through the air like a whip."

Throughout the conflict, Prigozhin's popularity surged as he produced candid, stark videos filmed close to the battlefront, some seemingly shot in Bakhmut, with explosions echoing in the background. He visited his troops in subterranean bunkers within the war zone. As Russia's war campaign encountered setbacks, he emerged as a reliable source of information for many—someone willing to challenge Russia's regulations against criticizing the military. He did so by openly revealing the military's shortcomings and the heavy toll in casualties, thus gaining trust as a truth-teller amidst the dwindling war efforts.

On two separate occasions, he showcased dozens of freshly fallen Wagner fighters who had perished in battles in Bakhmut. These videos featured him vehemently berating Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov while accusing them of treason and demanding a greater supply of ammunition.

In the past few days, the families of Wagner soldiers expressed their sorrow and allegiance in Telegram group chats. They also expressed concerns about whether they would receive the owed payments and benefits. Prigozhin had been subjected to U.S. sanctions for a considerable period, and his logistics and management chief, Valery Chekalov, was sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury Department in July. Chekalov was also among the individuals on the plane.

"To be a warrior is to live eternally!" penned the sister of a fallen Wagner fighter. "To me, he is a Man with a capital 'M,' someone who triumphed in the battle against himself first, and who established the Wagner PMC—an undoubtedly one of the most battle-prepared forces globally. It transformed into a genuine family for many individuals! A true Russian patriot who cherished the Motherland and held disdain for the incessant waves of bureaucracy, though sadly never managed to overcome them!" She conveyed her wishes for him to have a "luminous and everlasting memory."

Yet another woman voiced her concerns about the uncertain fate awaiting Wagner fighters without Prigozhin's safeguarding. She feared they might be compelled to join mercenary factions under the Ministry of Defense's control or be left with the option of enlisting as volunteer soldiers.

"Without Yevgeniy Prigozhin's leadership qualities, connections, and authority, who will shield the individuals from entering contracts with the Defense Ministry?" she inquired. "And who will guarantee their safe return home?"

In Moscow, people paid their respects at the Church of Saint Maxim the Blessed on Varvarka Street. In Prigozhin's hometown of St. Petersburg, tributes were left at his business center and a cafe associated with him.

Vasily Vlasov, a State Duma deputy representing the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia, proposed renaming Zolnaya Street in St. Petersburg—where Prigozhin's office center is situated—in honor of Prigozhin.

Prigozhin, aged 62, crossed paths with Putin, a former KGB officer working in the mayor's office, in St. Petersburg during the early 1990s. This occurred shortly after Prigozhin's release from prison in 1990, where he had served nine out of a 13-year sentence for theft, fraud, and robbery, as reported by Russian media.

Prominent figures in Russia offered their public tributes, aligning with Putin's commendation. Nationalist writer Zakhar Prilepin referred to him as the "finest of individuals." Alexei Dyumin, the governor of Tula and former head of Putin's security who was well-acquainted with Prigozhin, characterized him as a "genuine patriot, a resolute and intrepid individual" who was not a traitor.

Sergei Mironov, the leader of the political party A Just Russia For Truth, mentioned that Prigozhin had stirred controversy but cautioned that "those who are adversaries of Russia will face severe consequences for the heroes' demise."

As per analysts, many within Russia's elite are convinced that Prigozhin's demise was a result of an assassination orchestrated by Putin. Tatiana Stanovaya, a Russia analyst based in Paris, noted that the public statements of prominent figures echoed Putin's stance but also conveyed their uneasiness regarding the incident.

"All of this, of course, is highly subjective. Nevertheless, the sentiments of individuals like Dyumin can now be comprehended: they hold the belief that figures such as Prigozhin, despite their mistakes, shouldn't have met such a fate," she stated on Telegram.

According to Kolezyov, the analyst, Dyumin's remarks indicated fractures within the elites regarding Prigozhin's "punishment." He posited that Dyumin, seemingly positioning himself for a potential future as a defense minister, needed to secure the allegiance of junior and mid-level officers, who were likely to view Prigozhin's assassination unfavorably.

Former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson expressed his conviction that Putin was responsible for Prigozhin's assassination in a column published in the Daily Mail. This marked the most direct statement about the incident from any Western politician thus far.

"As we witness the chilling footage of that plane plummeting to the ground, we are observing a historical event. This is the televised, forceful elimination of his adversaries by a sitting head of state. I struggle to recall another instance of such brazen and unrestrained brutality from a global leader, not in our lifetimes," wrote Johnson, a strong supporter of Ukraine during his tenure as prime minister. He emphasized that the world was meant to be aware that Putin bore responsibility.

Western analysts argue that the true cause of the crash might never be fully disclosed due to Russia's politically influenced investigative system. Russian state-owned and pro-Kremlin media have concentrated on the official inquiry into the incident, suggesting that the plane could have been destroyed by Ukrainian saboteurs or foreign intelligence agents.

The pro-Kremlin tabloid newspaper Moskovsky Komsomolets reported that Prigozhin's aircraft had been parked in an open area and was repaired shortly before the fatal flight. The report mentioned that two potential buyers for Prigozhin's jet had spent an hour on board shortly before its departure.

Russia's advancements in the conflict have been limited since Wagner's capture of Bakhmut in May. Recent drone attacks on the capital, Moscow, have brought the war's impact directly to Muscovites. Early on Saturday, Russian air defenses successfully intercepted a drone near the capital, as confirmed by Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin. The Sheremetyevo, Vnukovo, and Domodyedovo airports were all temporarily shut down overnight for several hours.

The far-right Russian paramilitary group, Rusich, which had also been engaged in combat in Ukraine, declared on Friday night that it was withdrawing its fighters from the conflict. This decision followed the arrest of a prominent member, Yan Petrovsky, in Finland. There's a possibility he might be extradited to Ukraine to face charges of involvement in a terrorist organization. Rusich alleged that Russian authorities offered little assistance to Petrovsky.