Numerous campaigns are placing significant importance on South Carolina, where the Republican primary traditionally represents the final opportunity for many presidential candidates to make a breakthrough before the Super Tuesday elections.
With a microphone in hand, Senator Tim Scott departed the stage at a recent barbecue event in South Carolina, weaving his way through tables adorned with patriotic red, white, and blue decor, while attendees savored plates of pulled pork and baked beans.
Amid discussions about his campaign, Scott encountered Casey DeSantis, Florida's first lady, who gazed at the vacant stage where she was scheduled to deliver remarks. She was standing in for her husband, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who was overseeing the response to Hurricane Idalia.
Several hours earlier and about 130 miles to the northeast, former Governor Nikki Haley drew a packed crowd at an event hall. The overflow audience spilled into the corridors, with some attendees resorting to watching her speech on a video monitor.
This flurry of activity underscores the significance that these three campaigns are attributing to South Carolina, where the Republican primary has traditionally served as the final opportunity for many presidential aspirants to gain momentum before Super Tuesday. If former President Donald Trump maintains his status as the front-runner in both South Carolina and the other early voting states, thwarting his path to the GOP nomination may prove exceedingly challenging.
Historically, in all but one primary since 1980, the Republican victor in South Carolina has gone on to secure the party's nomination. Presently, Trump enjoys a substantial lead both within the state and nationally among Republican contenders. Competing for a distant second place are the two candidates hailing from South Carolina—Scott and Haley—as well as DeSantis. A July poll conducted by Fox Business revealed that while Scott, Haley, and DeSantis each garnered double-digit support, Trump still maintained a lead of more than 30 points.
Scott and Haley are facing increased pressure, given the longstanding expectation for a presidential candidate to secure victory in their home state. However, their presence in the race may also fracture any conventional advantage on their home turf in South Carolina, potentially opening the door for DeSantis to relegate them to a potentially awkward third or even fourth place finish.
"In a divided vote scenario like this, it's hard not to see Donald Trump holding a natural advantage over everyone else because he only needs to secure one more vote than the second-place candidate," noted Dave Wilson, a conservative political strategist in the state.
Various voters assessing their choices offered a mix of praise and criticism for the three contenders vying for second place, underscoring the fragmented nature of the field.
"We've got a lot of strong contenders," remarked Debra Donnan, a 52-year-old former postal worker from Laurens. "I'm not entirely sure yet. I'm just observing and learning."
Donnan expressed confidence in both Trump and DeSantis but also noted Scott's potential, saying, "Don't underestimate him. He's an outstanding American with firm beliefs and a strong character."
Meanwhile, Irene Gatton, a 78-year-old retired nurse, commended Haley as "down-to-earth" and "intelligent."
South Carolina's political establishment firmly backs Trump, as evidenced by his endorsements from Senator Lindsey Graham and Governor Henry McMaster, who previously held the position of lieutenant governor before Trump appointed Nikki Haley as his United Nations ambassador, a decision Trump has claimed McMaster requested.
Over the July 4th weekend, Trump managed to draw an enormous crowd numbering in the tens of thousands to the small town of Pickens, South Carolina, an accomplishment unmatched by any other candidate.
While Trump has held fewer events overall and chose to skip the initial presidential debate—a decision criticized by voters attending other candidates' events—he remains the preeminent political figure within the party and maintains a strong standing among Republicans, even as he faces four criminal indictments.
Addressing the "Faith & Freedom BBQ" in South Carolina's Upstate region last week, Senator Scott spoke not as a White House aspirant but as a sitting senator from his home state. He articulated that his campaign revolves around the themes of "restoring hope, creating opportunity, and safeguarding the America we all cherish." This vision encompasses supporting law enforcement, completing the U.S.-Mexico border wall, and affording parents greater choices in their children's education.
Following Scott's speech, Casey DeSantis, who stood in for her husband, Ron DeSantis, while he remained in Florida to oversee preparations for Hurricane Idalia, delivered a three-minute introduction video that elicited enthusiastic cheers from the crowd. Casey DeSantis blended familiar anecdotes about her family and life in the Florida governor's mansion with pointed criticism of President Joe Biden. She pledged that her husband would be a president "who assists the White House children with their homework rather than indulging in cocaine," alluding to both the drug discovery earlier this year in the White House and the well-publicized substance abuse issues of Biden's son, Hunter.
Haley didn't make an appearance at the barbecue event but instead drew a sizable crowd at an earlier gathering in Indian Land, a small community near Charlotte, North Carolina. Her demeanor seemed particularly upbeat, likely bolstered by her strong performance in the recent debate, during which she offered pointed critiques of rival Vivek Ramaswamy on foreign policy and highlighted, in an otherwise all-male lineup, that "if you want something done, ask a woman."
At her town hall session, she once again took aim at Ramaswamy, employing a double-edged Southern barb that elicited appreciative laughter: "Bless his heart."
"I may wear a skirt," she quipped, "but you've seen me at work. If you say something completely off the mark, I'm going to call you out every single time."
During their overlapping years as Republican officeholders in South Carolina, both Haley and Scott garnered support from many of the same voters. They have each triumphed in every statewide race they've contested, although Scott has not faced substantial Democratic opposition in a state that has not elected a Democrat statewide for nearly two decades.
"I think Tim Scott could make a good vice president, but he said he didn't want to," remarked retired engineer Huley Shumpert from Pelion. Shumpert, along with his wife, Brenda Shumpert, attended the barbecue and were undecided about their GOP nominee preference, but both leaned toward wanting Scott to continue serving in the Senate.
Brenda Shumpert mentioned she could envision Haley as a running mate for Trump or DeSantis, but she wouldn't support Haley for president due to a prominent decision from her second term as governor. Haley had long resisted calls to remove the Confederate battle flag from the statehouse grounds, even portraying a rival's effort to do so as a desperate stunt. However, she reversed her stance in 2015, advocating for the flag's removal following the racially motivated killing of nine Black churchgoers during a Bible study in Charleston.
"Nikki was our governor, and she took down the Confederate flag, which to us is important," Brenda Shumpert explained. "There's historical significance in that."
Haley successfully won over several locals who attended her event, including Gail Peplinski, a 71-year-old retired executive assistant. Prior to the August 23rd debate, Peplinski had been leaning toward supporting Trump.
But she found Haley to be "no-nonsense" and appreciated that she "doesn't just talk a lot of fluff."
Rick Satterfield, who was leaving the event with Peplinski, expressed his belief that Haley won the debate, although DeSantis performed well. In his praise of Haley, Satterfield captured a shift that both Haley and Scott are striving to achieve—to be seen as the frontrunner, not a runner-up.
"Even if she doesn't become president, I think she'd make a great vice president because then she could run in four years if it's Trump," he opined.
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