SEOUL, South Korea — South Korea is set to partially suspend an inter-Korean agreement on Wednesday to reinstate frontline aerial surveillance of North Korea, following the North's assertion of launching a military spy satellite in violation of United Nations sanctions, according to officials in Seoul.
The South Korean decision, expected to provoke North Korea, was made shortly after the North claimed to have successfully placed a military reconnaissance satellite into orbit—marking its third such launch attempt this year.
The veracity of North Korea's claim is yet to be independently verified; the Pentagon reported ongoing assessments of the launch's success, while Japan stated that there is no confirmation of the North Korean satellite entering orbit. Nevertheless, the United States and its allies swiftly condemned the launch, viewing it as an effort to enhance the country's missile technology and establish a space-based surveillance system.
North Korea contends that it possesses sovereign and legitimate rights to launch spy satellites in response to what it perceives as escalating threats led by the U.S. However, United Nations Security Council resolutions continue to prohibit any satellite launches by North Korea, considering them as veiled attempts to test long-range missile technology.
Heo Tae-keun, South Korea's deputy minister of national defense policy, conveyed during a televised briefing that the North's recent satellite launch not only flagrantly violated U.N. resolutions but also constituted "a grave provocation that threatens our national security."
Heo announced that South Korea would respond by partially suspending the 2018 inter-Korean tension-reduction agreement later on Wednesday, thereby reinstating aerial surveillance activities at the border. The decision received approval during South Korea's Cabinet Council meeting earlier in the day.
Highlighting the robust military alliance with the U.S., Heo affirmed that South Korea stands ready to "promptly and strongly punish" North Korea should it exploit the South Korean action as a pretext for further provocations.
The 2018 agreement, crafted during a brief period of reconciliation between the rival Koreas, established buffer and no-fly zones along their heavily fortified border. Within this accord, both Koreas committed to ceasing frontline aerial reconnaissance and live-firing exercises, in addition to removing some guard posts and landmines from border areas.
However, the agreement faced staunch criticism in South Korea, particularly from conservatives who argued that it significantly limited the operational capabilities of the country's advanced aerial surveillance assets, far superior to North Korea's. Critics contended that the deal disproportionately favored North Korea, focusing on mutual reductions in conventional military strength while allowing the North to maintain its expanding nuclear arsenal—a domain where South Korea possesses no nuclear weapons.
The fleeting period of Korean rapprochement came to an end with the breakdown of broader nuclear diplomacy between North Korea and the U.S. in 2019. Subsequently, North Korea escalated missile tests to modernize its weapons arsenal, prompting the U.S. and South Korea to expand their defense exercises in response.
In announcing the purported success of the launch of its "Malligyong-1" spy satellite, North Korea's National Aerospace Technology Administration asserted that the satellite would enhance the North's preparedness against "the enemies' dangerous military moves." The agency further disclosed plans for the imminent launch of additional spy satellites to enhance monitoring capabilities, particularly over South Korea and other regions.
North Korea employed the same satellite in its unsuccessful launches in both May and August. Following the first launch, South Korea's military recovered debris, deeming the satellite too rudimentary for effective military reconnaissance.
The North Korean space agency asserted that the "Malligyong-1" satellite entered its orbit on Tuesday night, approximately 12 minutes after being launched via the new "Chollima-1" carrier rocket. However, neighboring countries have yet to confirm the launch's success.
Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno stated, "Our understanding is that so far there is no confirmation of a satellite placed into Earth's orbit." Despite refraining from labeling the launch a failure, Matsuno emphasized that it would require "a fair amount of time" to validate the North's launch.
Sabrina Singh, the Pentagon's deputy press secretary, commented, "we're still assessing the success of the launch."
While North Korea successfully placed Earth observation satellites into orbit in 2012 and 2016 after multiple setbacks, experts note that neither satellite has transmitted imagery back to North Korea.
Ahead of Tuesday's launch, South Korean officials suggested that North Korea might be receiving technological support from Russia for its spy satellite program, in line with the efforts of both countries to strengthen their partnerships.
The U.S., South Korea, and other nations allege that North Korea is supplying conventional arms to support Russia's involvement in the conflict in Ukraine, with the exchange involving advanced Russian technologies to enhance North Korea's military capabilities. Both North Korea and Russia have denied these accusations.
A spy satellite stands among the sophisticated weapons systems that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un aims to incorporate. Analysts believe that Kim's ultimate goal is to leverage an expanded arsenal to secure sanctions relief and other concessions from the U.S. when diplomatic discussions resume.
While some civilian experts suggest that North Korea's Malligyong-1 satellite may be primarily capable of detecting significant targets such as warships or aircraft, the deployment of several such satellites could enable North Korea to maintain continuous surveillance over South Korea, they noted.
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