When is the Iceland volcano expected to erupt, and what are the potential consequences when it does?

 

As an imminent volcanic eruption looms, thousands of residents in Iceland find themselves on edge, awaiting their fate as their town could be obliterated within days.

The southwestern peninsula of Reykjanes experienced a series of thousands of earthquakes on Saturday, November 11. These tremors led to semi-molten rock surging beneath the surface, causing a 15km-long dyke to form and splitting the community in two as the ground was pushed upward.

In the face of the impending threat, approximately 3,400 residents from the town of Grindavik, situated along the path of the anticipated fissure vent eruption, were compelled to evacuate. As they briefly returned to collect their belongings, they witnessed what they described as 'apocalyptic' scenes in their beloved hometown.

The entire population now exists in a state of uncertainty, fearing for the future of their close-knit community. Many have already suffered the loss of their homes, while others remain uncertain about the status of their residences as earthquakes persistently continue to shake the region.

The displaced population has dispersed across the country, finding refuge in spare rooms and summer homes offered by fellow Icelanders.

Subsequently, volcanologists have observed a shift in the eruption's stage, heightening the likelihood of it occurring in the next few days.

Tamsin Mather, a professor of Earth Sciences at the University of Oxford, conveyed to The Independent that the most concerning challenge is navigating the uncertainty surrounding the eruption's timing. She remarked, "It's being very well managed in my opinion, but it could accelerate very quickly as the heightened state of activity continues."

When is it expected to erupt?

The Iceland Civil Defence has reported "very clear signs of magma along the dyke," located less than 1km below the surface, according to RUV. Víðir Reynisson, the director of Civil Defence, conveyed to the state broadcaster that the likelihood of an event along the dyke, particularly in the center, is imminent—anticipated within days rather than weeks. Reynisson stated, "If this continues without an eruption, the chance of one decreases with time pretty rapidly. But then we see the changes at Svartsengi, which introduce possibly the next stage of this." An Icelandic volcanologist has proposed that the area near the Svartsengi power plant, approximately four km north of Grindavík, has entered a "new eruption phase."

The terrain near the power plant is undergoing swelling as a chamber approximately 4.5 kilometers below the surface is filling with magma at a rate of around 50 cubic meters per second, as outlined by Professor Thorvaldur Thordarson.

"The land is rising much faster now. This happens simultaneously because the magma is creating space and thus raising the surface of the earth," explained Professor Thordarson to Iceland Monitor.

Despite the accelerated changes, the exact timing of the eruption remains uncertain, leaving Grindavik evacuees in a state of suspense.

Professor Mather acknowledged the potential for a sudden eruption but reassured that the Icelandic Met Office, well-equipped and vigilant, is working tirelessly to mitigate any imminent danger.

Regarding the potential dangers of an eruption, in the worst-case scenario, the entire town could be obliterated, including schools, workplaces, and cherished family homes. However, measures are being taken to construct two walls around the Svartsengi geothermal plant, diverting potential lava flow away from the facility that provides hot water for heating to 30,000 people, according to RUV.

Professor Mather expressed concern about potential impacts on the power station, town, and infrastructure but expressed hope for the avoidance of fatalities or injuries, given the preventive measures taken.

The Civil Defence, in a recent conference, stated that the risk of an eruption remains high, although precise quantification of the risks is challenging, as reported by RUV.

Iceland's susceptibility to natural disasters stems from its location on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, a divergent plate boundary where the North American Plate and the Eurasian Plate are moving away from each other.

The country experiences an eruption approximately every four to five years, with the most disruptive recent event being the 2010 eruption of the Eyjafjallajokull volcano. This eruption ejected massive ash clouds into the atmosphere, grounding flights across Europe for days due to concerns about potential damage to airplane engines. Professor Mather, an expert in Icelandic volcanology, emphasized that there are various factors influencing the impact of an eruption. She stated, "Speculation isn't terribly helpful, but once the eruption starts, they will be able to assess the contours and the direction of the lava flow." Predicting the flow path is challenging until the eruption commences. The optimal scenario would involve the eruption occurring in the base of a valley, allowing the lava to flow a short distance. Conversely, the worst-case scenario would be an eruption on high ground, causing the lava to spread over a vast area. Several factors, such as wind direction, play a role in determining the extent of destruction, affecting the dispersal of pyroclastic material and ash. Additionally, an eruption releases sulfur dioxide and hydrogen sulphide, impacting air quality over a broad area, as noted by Professor Mather. Scientists suggest that an eruption in this case would likely produce lava rather than an ash cloud.

What would be the impact on the residents?

Civil protection authorities informed the Associated Press that even if an eruption doesn't occur imminently, it's expected to be several months before residents evacuated from the high-risk zone can safely return home. In a worst-case scenario, if the eruption occurs in close proximity to the town of Grindavík, it has the potential to devastate the entire town, particularly considering the damage already inflicted on homes by recent earthquakes.

The Icelandic Civil Defence, in communication with their state broadcaster, indicated that there is a possibility for residents to return home temporarily to retrieve their belongings. Many have already managed to gather essential items and pets. Jóhanna Lilja Birgisdóttir, a senior psychologist at Grindavík’s social services department, outlined the town's plan for displaced schoolchildren in a statement to RUV. During a conference this morning, she presented two potential solutions: either for the children to attend school where their families are currently residing or for schoolchildren to form groups and attend schools in various parts of Reykjavík starting next Wednesday. At present, Grindavík residents have the option to apply for short-term accommodation through a government portal, providing them with a place to stay until mid-January.

How would an emergency response be handled?

An emergency response is currently in progress, triggered by magma intrusion measurements that suggest a potential eruption could occur within days. In the event of an eruption, the area will be under continuous monitoring for decades. Emergency teams and experts will be deployed to address risks as they arise. Professor Mathers explained that once an eruption commences, authorities are better equipped to assess and respond to the likely disruptions. Currently, Grindavik residents are unable to return home, as the magma intrusion along the 15km dyke is being closely monitored.