More than 90 percent of emperor penguin colonies in Antarctica face the potential of collapsing by the end of the century due to the drastic reduction in sea ice caused by the climate crisis, according to new research.
This concerning trend of potential collapse is primarily driven by an unparalleled breeding failure triggered by the diminishing sea ice in a crucial region. The study, carried out by researchers from the British Antarctic Survey and published in the journal Communications Earth & Environment on Thursday, highlights the alarming pace of this crisis.
The research focused on the central and eastern Bellingshausen Sea, where satellite imagery revealed the absence of sea ice at breeding sites well before chicks could develop their waterproof feathers. Consequently, this led to an almost complete breakdown of breeding among emperor penguin colonies.
Peter Fretwell, the lead author of the study, commented, "We have never seen emperor penguins experience such a large-scale breeding failure in a single season." He explained that the loss of sea ice in this specific region during the Antarctic summer greatly diminished the chances of displaced chicks surviving.
"We are aware that emperor penguins are highly susceptible in a warming climate, and current scientific findings suggest that occurrences of extreme sea ice loss like this will become more frequent and widespread," Dr. Fretwell stated.
Emperor penguins heavily depend on stable sea ice, particularly the "land-fast" ice that remains connected to the shore, for their breeding cycle, as highlighted in the study.
These penguins lay their eggs during the Antarctic winter, spanning from May to June, and the eggs hatch after a 65-day incubation period. However, the chicks do not become fledged until the summer months, specifically between December and January.
The loss of sea ice this year, which took place earlier than the usual breeding season timeframe, has left these vulnerable chicks with insufficient time for development and survival.
Antarctica has witnessed a consistent decline in sea ice over recent years, with the lowest extents recorded between 2016 and 2022.
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During the years 2021-22 and 2022-23, the recorded sea ice extents reached their lowest points in the 45-year history of satellite observations.
The central and eastern Bellingshausen Sea experienced an extraordinary level of sea ice loss, with a complete absence of sea ice observed in November 2022.
The study's focus centered on five recently identified emperor penguin colonies: Rothschild Island, Verdi Inlet, Smyley Island, Bryan Peninsula, and Pfrogner Point. These colonies exhibited a consistent pattern of returning to the same breeding sites each year. However, the study unveiled a dire scenario, indicating that four out of these five colonies showed no signs of chick survival. This underscores the severity of the crisis.
Dr. Caroline Holmes, a polar climate scientist at the British Antarctic Survey, remarked, "The sea ice extent in Antarctica is still significantly below all previous records for this time of year. Despite the ongoing freezing of oceans, we are witnessing areas that are, remarkably, largely devoid of ice."
Holmes added, "The recent years of declining sea ice records and the warming of the subsurface Southern Ocean strongly point to human-induced global warming exacerbating these extremes."
The study's findings emphasize the crucial connection between the loss of sea ice and the potential collapse of entire ecosystems, according to the authors.
"Climate change is causing a rapid melting of sea ice. It is projected to vanish from the Arctic by the 2030s, and in the Antarctic, the four lowest sea ice extents have been recorded since 2016," highlighted Dr. Jeremy Wilkinson, a sea ice physicist at the British Antarctic Survey.
He further emphasized, "This serves as another alarm for humanity that we cannot persist on this trajectory; policymakers must take action to mitigate the consequences of climate change. Time is running out."
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