An international tax accountant, Alan Cole, has won a significant bet on the prediction market Kalshi, wagering against the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) reducing federal spending in a year.
Cole, who was featured in a Wall Street Journal story, bet his entire life savings of over $342,000 against the possibility of the U.S. federal budget being quickly reduced. He amassed 3% of a Kalshi prediction market that had grown to $12 million, making a few hedging bets along the way.
When the government released the 2025 year-end spending report on February 20, showing increases compared to 2024, Cole walked away with $470,300 and a handsome $128,000 profit. This outcome highlights the accuracy of Cole's bet on Kalshi, a platform that allows users to wager on various events and outcomes.
The Prediction Market
Kalshi's prediction market had grown to $12 million, with Cole's bet accounting for 3% of the total. The platform allows users to wager on various events, including political and economic outcomes, providing a unique way for individuals to engage with and predict the outcome of significant events.
Cole's win demonstrates the potential for individuals to make informed bets on Kalshi, using their expertise and knowledge to predict outcomes. In this case, Cole's understanding of federal spending and the limitations of the DOGE's ability to reduce it quickly proved to be accurate.
Market Context
The outcome of Cole's bet on Kalshi highlights the importance of understanding the complexities of federal spending and the challenges of reducing it quickly. The DOGE's efforts to reduce spending, including nixing federal contracts and laying off workers, were ultimately insufficient to offset the remaining obligations and the skyrocketing federal debt.
