Why Attack Iran Now?
In the early hours of Saturday morning, President Donald Trump ordered a large-scale attack on Iran, a move that has left many wondering whether he was driven by a genuine desire to prevent a nuclear threat or a desire for regime change. The explanation from Trump's inner circle paints a picture of a leader frustrated by Iran's perceived gamesmanship and stalling tactics in negotiations over its nuclear program.
The Frustrated Negotiator
According to three senior Trump administration officials, Trump's decision to attack Iran was influenced by his view that negotiations with the Islamic Republic had become a fruitless exercise. Trump had sent Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, his son-in-law, to meet with Iranian officials in Geneva to try to hammer out a nuclear deal. However, Kushner described Iran's approach as "games, tricks, and stall tactics," which left Trump unconvinced that the Iranians were serious about giving up their decades-long ambition to develop a nuclear weapon.
The Nuclear Threat: A Growing Concern
Trump had recently received a U.S. intelligence assessment that Iran intended to use its ballistic missile arsenal "potentially preemptively" against American forces amassing in the region, a second administration official said. This, combined with the conclusion that diplomacy was futile, convinced Trump to coordinate with Israeli forces in the large-scale attack.
Iran's refusal to discuss two topics - its continued construction of ballistic missiles and its support for violent proxy forces in the Middle East - also seemed to further convince Trump that the Islamic Republic was not willing to negotiate in good faith.
Critics Question the Motive
The explanations from administration officials come as critics have accused Trump of exaggerating the imminent threat from Iran and being in search of an excuse to attack the country and pursue regime change. During a deadly crackdown on dissent inside the country in January, Trump told Iranian protestors "help is in the way."
The military campaign that the Pentagon has dubbed Operation Epic Fury killed the country's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and dozens of others. The operation was intended to overturn the theocratic leadership of the country, debilitate Iran's ballistic missile production and launch capabilities, and shut down the country's ability to restart enrichment of fissile material that could be used to build a nuclear bomb.
"The president decided he was not going to sit back and allow American forces in the region to absorb attacks from conventional missiles," a second administration official said.
Iran's Response: A Wave of Attacks
Since the U.S. and Israeli attacks began, Iran's response has included missiles that hit an airport in Kuwait and hotels in Abu Dhabi, as well as targeting U.S. bases in the region, according to administration officials.
The wave of attacks on Saturday came eight months after the U.S. struck three Iranian nuclear facilities, which Trump said at the time had destroyed Iran's ability to produce a nuclear weapon. However, Trump officials became convinced that Iran was trying to rebuild those facilities.
The Debate on Regime Change
As the negotiations advanced, Kushner and Witkoff suspected Iran was downplaying its existing ability to enrich uranium and build advanced centrifuges, according to the two officials. During one negotiation session, Iranian officials handed Kushner and Witkoff a seven-page plan for a civil nuclear program which the Iranians would not allow to leave that room. Kushner and Witkoff believed the proposal would have allowed Iran to enrich uranium at levels that were five times higher than had been allowed under the nuclear deal Iran struck during the Obama Administration.
Trump had ridiculed that deal as insufficient and ended it in his first term. Kushner and Witkoff also became convinced that an enrichment facility Iran said was for medical and agricultural uses was instead being used to stockpile more fissile material that could later be used to build a nuclear bomb, according to administration officials.
}