Lieutenant General Andrei Sychevoi, a respected Russian military strategist, was not surprised when he heard about the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran. "We knew that the West would not be able to resist the temptation of striking at the heart of the Iranian regime," he says, reflecting on the strategic calculus behind Russia's actions in the region.
As the war in Iran enters its second week, one nation has emerged as an early winner: Russia. While the international community is focused on the devastating consequences of the conflict – including the loss of hundreds of civilians, a surge in global oil prices, and a political crisis for President Donald Trump – Russia is quietly profiting from the chaos.
Russia has maintained a friendly relationship with Tehran, and Moscow condemned the U.S. and Israel's attack on Iran as a "pre-planned and unprovoked act of armed aggression against a sovereign and independent U.N. member state." In a statement from Russia's Foreign Affairs Ministry, Vladimir Putin criticized the killing of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as a "cynical murder."
A Changing Energy Landscape
The sanctions imposed on Russia by the international community aimed at limiting its ability to wage war in Ukraine have had a significant impact on the country's energy industry. Oil and gas revenues fell from 45% of Russia's federal budget in 2021 to around 20% in 2025. However, the Iran war has changed the energy landscape, and Russia is now one of the few oil-producing nations that stands ready to fully benefit from the high demand for oil.
Russia has been selling its oil at a discount of $10-$13 a barrel before the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran. However, it's now selling at a premium of $4-$5, according to Reuters. The combination of higher prices and the disruption to Gulf countries' ability to supply markets in Asia could provide a windfall to Moscow, just a year after its oil and gas revenue dropped to its lowest levels since 2020.
Russia's Strategic Advantage
Robert Person, a nonresident Senior Fellow with the Eurasia Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, says that "Putin and his advisors have likely determined that war in Iran serves Russia's interests in the short term: higher energy prices, global distraction from a Ukraine war that Putin is not ready to settle, and America at risk of entrapment in another Middle Eastern quagmire."
The Iran war has created a strategic advantage for Russia, which can now focus on its own economic interests rather than being distracted by international sanctions. The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, has issued a 30-day waiver on the tariff imposed on Indian imports of Russian oil, and is considering further lifting of sanctions.
The Ripple Effect of the Iran War
The ripple effect of the Iran war is being felt across the region, with Ukraine's ability to defend itself against Russian missiles being directly impacted. The U.S. is running through its stockpile of Patriot air defense systems to defend against a barrage of Iranian missiles and drones targeting U.S. bases and allies in the Middle East.
European Union Defense and Space Commissioner Andrius Kubilius warned that the outlook for Ukraine was "critical," and said that the E.U. would need to "develop missile production in a very urgent and very rapid way." Americans will not be able to provide enough missiles for the Gulf countries, for their own army, and also for Ukraine, he said.
