Russia has condemned the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with President Vladimir Putin calling it a “cynical violation of all norms of human morals and the international law”.
Moscow has been Iran’s main international backer for decades, shielding it from United Nations resolutions and selling weaponry worth billions of dollars to Tehran. Despite this, Russia appears poised to benefit from the war in Iran, with its oil revenues expected to increase.
The price of Russia’s Urals crude has risen to $57 per barrel, after the international benchmark Brent crude jumped by 13 percent to $82 per barrel. This increase is attributed to the suspension of Iran’s oil exports, which means that oil refineries will have to rely on Russian oil.
Oil Market Impact
Igar Tyshkevych, a political analyst based in Kyiv, told Al Jazeera that “Russian oil will be sought after because the rebuilding of technological processes of oil refineries takes long and costs a lot”.
Tyshkevych added that if oil prices rise further, the Kremlin may propose to increase supply in exchange for Washington’s decision to partially lift the sanctions. This could lead to a decrease in petrol prices in the US before the midterm elections in November.
Russia’s higher oil production could also lead to a boost in its economy, which has been affected by Western sanctions over the war in Ukraine.
Diplomatic Efforts
Russia may also attempt to act as a mediator in peace talks between Tehran and Washington, according to Tyshkevych. Putin has previously offered to mediate US-Iranian negotiations on Tehran’s nuclear programme, but Washington ignored the offer.
The conflicts with Iran have distracted the US from trying to reach a settlement of the Russia-Ukraine war, which has entered its fifth year. The talks have stalled, with Moscow urging Ukraine to leave the Kyiv-controlled part of the Donetsk region.
Regional Implications
The war in Iran has also led to a shortage of US-supplied missiles for Patriot air defence systems in Ukraine, which can shoot down Russian ballistic missiles. Analysts have warned that this could lead to a deficit in Ukraine’s defence capabilities.
Lieutenant General Ihor Romanenko, former deputy chief of the Ukrainian military’s General Staff, told Al Jazeera that “we felt a serious deficit before the war, and there is a high probability that the situation will only get worse”.
Ruslan Suleymanov, an associate fellow at the New Eurasian Strategies Center, told Al Jazeera that Putin faces a tough choice between Washington and Tehran, and that the Kremlin has to maintain a pragmatic partnership with Israel.
Alisher Ilkhamov, head of the Central Asia Due Diligence think tank, told Al Jazeera that the Iran war has further ruined the authority of international law, and that the Kremlin may use Khamenei’s killing to persuade men of fighting age in Tajikistan to fight in Ukraine.
Source: Al Jazeera
